Today has been a volatile day for traders of digital assets. The daily chart over the last 12 hours for the S&P 500 E-mini futures has created a near 100 point wick to the south leaving opening bell as a dangerous game for speculators this morning. Bitcoin has been moving up through a daily regression chart that is nearing the top after a 10-day boost from the March 10th low of $19,568. It has reached a 2nd peak overbought (over 70) on the RSI Divergence. The likeliness that the price gains a powerful bull run from here is a bit less than the chance of some pullback/sell-off/weakened strength.
Before we get to the top of the channel at $30K-ish we need to evaluate smart money flow vs. speculating. Let's look at a couple of today's numbers and charts.
Below (from TradingView in U$D) we see a trading volume of $49 billion,
which is 9% of the total market cap of $545 billion.
49B is some of that smart money moving around.
Smart money definition: corporations & professional capitalists that have been traditionally making money through investing large sums of money that create market making movement.
Controlling how to keep the positive gains and minimal losses for major players in the financial arena is done by expert teams of full-time analysts and artificial intelligence driven towards optimal trajectory of results. This is how smart money is used to breed profit and power. The power comes with the ability to create and ride tides of volatility in financial data.
If the BTC bulls can continue on the weekly chart then we may not see resistance and major correction on BTC till $33K at the divergence of the long term regression channel and the positive gains of the 2023 price action moving across that channel to the upper half. The RSI Divergence received it's double bottom on the weekly chart at the 50 line which could possibly signify Bitcoin is on the up & up to not be considered overbought till seeing a substantial turnaround over the 70.
The daily chart and smaller timeframes are beginning to signal time for scared speculators to sell out of their small amount of Bitcoin relatively speaking as the cryptocurrency reaches the top of a 3rd move up over the past 10 days. If the this move was too much to sustain bull movement past the $30K resistance levels, then we can easily see a retracement of the BTC price back down to 19K-23K over the next week or so.
Or, if there is something on the horizon that defies daily charts and fulfills weekly potential then we may see a bit more action to break and hold above $28,578 and establish a new sideways price action between the range of 28K-33K with 30K being a contingent checkpoint.
Price increase is much slower for the 19.5 million coins as the market increases. When Bitcoiners decide to take profits and invest in other assets, they later re-enter the BTC market after the price drops and a discount is given. Buy low can only happen if heavy selling happens up when it is up. "Follow the Money, but don't lag too far behind."
Bitcoin may see a rise in the number of longer term holders as it has been fundamentally able to withstand the security and risk issues associated with other crypto assets and especially former sanctuary-like Stablecoins such as USDC. USDC recently depegged from the dollar down to $0.85 before recovering which has left investors with another conundrum on how to safely and effectively hedge against inflation and enjoy the control of their own assets. You should read more on Cointelegraph if you haven't already discovered the recent depeg & recover: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:3230d46e3094b:0-rattled-crypto-industry-could-emerge-stronger-after-usdc-depeg/
Thanks for reading!
This BLOG article is definitely not trading, legal, financial, tax, or any other type of unsolicited or solicited advice. Just facts and opinions intermingled like most things on the internet. Do your own research and only risk money that you can afford to lose if you participate in open market trading or investing in digital products such as derivatives and spot currencies.